Dan Hodges has a piece in the Daily Telegraph here about why the Conservatives believe they have a chance of an outright victory at the next general election.
Lord Ashcroft has an article on Conservative Home here warning Conservatives against over-optimism and fooling ourselves by mistakes such as "comfort polling."
Who is right?
Well, actually I think the most of the arguments in both articles have something going for them.
And one issue not discussed in either is Miliband's strategy of abandoning the political centre in favour of energising his base while trying to appealing more broadly with specifically focussed campaigns on issues like Energy prices.
In most elections abandoning the centre amounts to political suicide, and it may prove so this time, but given that our present electoral system might give Miliband a majority with 35% of the vote this could be one of the rare instances where a strategy like the one he is using works.
It is still eighteen months to the 2015 election. There is a lot of ground to cover. It really could go either way. All the parties have grounds for hope. But there is no room for an atom of complacency.
Lord Ashcroft has an article on Conservative Home here warning Conservatives against over-optimism and fooling ourselves by mistakes such as "comfort polling."
Who is right?
Well, actually I think the most of the arguments in both articles have something going for them.
And one issue not discussed in either is Miliband's strategy of abandoning the political centre in favour of energising his base while trying to appealing more broadly with specifically focussed campaigns on issues like Energy prices.
In most elections abandoning the centre amounts to political suicide, and it may prove so this time, but given that our present electoral system might give Miliband a majority with 35% of the vote this could be one of the rare instances where a strategy like the one he is using works.
It is still eighteen months to the 2015 election. There is a lot of ground to cover. It really could go either way. All the parties have grounds for hope. But there is no room for an atom of complacency.
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