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Friday, August 23, 2013

Growth Figures

The latest growth figures for the second quarter of this year, released by the office of National Statistics, suggest that the UK economy grow by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2013, and activity was 1.5% higher than in the same quarter of 2012.

The revised data confirmed that all four major sectors of the economy - services, industry, agriculture and construction - had expanded during the three months to June.

The latest ONS release showed that exports played a bigger role than expected in boosting growth.

Exports rose 3.6% from the previous three months, helped by the weak pound and a bottoming-out of the eurozone economy, while imports increased 2.5%, meaning that the country's deficit would have narrowed.

"The expenditure breakdown was positive news," said Philip Rush, economist at investment bank Nomura. "Consumption obviously fairly important to the recovery there but... the recovery in the second quarter wasn't as reliant on consumption as we'd feared."

Most economists agree that for the recovery to be sustained, the UK economy needs to rebalance away from the consumer spending that helped drive the boom in the last decade, with greater reliance on industry, investment and exports.

Investment spending by businesses rose 1.7% - still a somewhat tepid rate during an economic recovery - while government spending rose 0.9%, despite spending cuts in Whitehall and demonstrating that there is still more to do to eliminate the deficit.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at data provider Markit, said: "Importantly, the upturn was not simply fueled by surging spending by households. Instead, exports and business investment were key drivers of the expansion, pointing to a rebalancing of the economy away from domestic consumption."

The Treasury, which is hoping a full-blown recovery is under way, after almost two years of weakness, seized on the widespread nature of recovery.

A spokeswoman said: "This data confirms that the British economy is moving from rescue to recovery, supported by balanced growth across the economy. It's particularly encouraging that growth in exports and investment contributed well over half of the second quarter growth rate. There is still a long way to go, but the economy is on the right track."

David Kern, of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "Business investment is still too weak in spite of the modest rise, but the figures support our view that Britain's trading position is improving. Although the rebalancing towards net exports is taking some time, we have seen a significant narrowing of the trade deficit in the first half of this year."
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